Investment propertySlowdown or Downturn? There"s Definitely a Difference
The two terms would probably wreak havoc in a English class for the foreign born. Aren"t a slowdown and a downturn the same thing? Not according to the National Association of Home Builders, who predicted a national economic slowdown this year, but acknowledged that some extremities in the U.S., like New England and California will continue to be hotspots.
Although the end of the decade saw many areas experience substantial recovery from the doldrums of the recession, home sales and housing starts are expected to slow by 5 percent to 8 percent overall, except for those areas where slow but steady growth is still taking place.
The economic expansion began with the Midwest, not hitting the coasts as quickly due to the deeper pit of economic mud in which it was mired. By the mid- 1990s, when most other parts of the country were well on their way to prosperity, the coasts were finally beginning to show signs of health. Then 1997-99 hit like gangbusters, strengthening jobs and housing markets all over the United States, according to NAHB chief Economist David Seiders. And there"s no real end in sight.
Unemployment rates fell to its three-decade low in 1999, with 95 percent of the employable population able to claim real paychecks by the end of the year. Housing start statistics were claiming SST-like take-offs, with 42 states reporting a surge in single family permits. The only areas not yet cruising in the jet stream at the time were the Northeast and the Pacific Coast.
But God doesn"t deny, he only delays. The NAHB outlook for these coastal areas is now healthy for 2000 and beyond, showing lots of positive growth, which is only fair under the circumstances.
Seiders debunks the idea that the once-popular "rolling recession" theory, insisting that some areas of the country must suffer while others thrive, has already been proven wrong. This is indeed good news, not only for the building industry but also for homebuyers as well, who now have more geographic and career-based options open to them than ever before.
High tech companies, once concentrating their operations in a few corridors of the U.S. are now spreading their wings and taking flight to more affordable burgs of the inner coastal areas, the desert states and Midwest. This trend will no doubt create more skilled job growth within their local economies, all the while creating the need for more homes.
Home builders studiously attack demographic research to try to figure out what types of housing these newer-growth areas will require, keeping them on their toes while the economic video game changes both scenes and players before their very eyes.