Technology TransactionsCrystal Ball: Predictions For 2000
As both 1999 and the millennium draw to a close, the year 2000 looms ahead and with it new directions for real estate. What will change, and how will real estate be impacted?
I"ve polished my crystal ball, arranged my tea leaves, and listened to leading futurists, technologists, economists, and astrologers -- all of whom have about the same predictive skills. For what it"s worth -- and with no guarantees -- here"s what we can expect to see in the coming 12 months.
Declining Online Costs. A major barrier to getting online is the simple matter of money. Subscribe to a major online service and you"re likely to shell out $250 a year. But in 2000 free online services will emerge as a serious marketplace alternative, a change which means that no broker, and no client, needs to be stuck off-line.
Declining Hardware Costs. Every year computers become both more powerful and cheaper. Today companies give away once-valuable calculators, and we may soon reach that point with computers. Look for full-blown computers priced at $200 by year-end, a growing after-market for used computers, and the popularization of cheap e-mail "appliances."
Courtly Issues. People will look back and see that the best legal strategy in 1999 came from Intel, which shrewdly settled all government monopoly claims without a major court battle. Watch trial lawyers -- a group that would joyously eat their young and then sue cutlery manufacturers for providing the forks -- as they take on the software industry in 2000.
Free Software. To cut office expenses, brokers will increasingly turn to no-cost software such as the Star Division programs from Sun Microsystems, programs that work with a variety of operating systems, do everything most offices require (including word processing, databases, spreadsheets, and slide presentations), easily import and export files, and are free, free, free.
A Tougher SEC. The online revolution is largely powered by cash from Wall Street, a reality which means that the Securities and Exchange Commission gets a constant stream of initial public offerings. Look for the SEC to start taking on Internet puffery. Prospective stock sellers will be forced to dump terms such as leading, timely, strategic, certain, best, and better. Instead, those seeking to place an IPO will be forced to supply real numbers that can be verified by independent third-parties and explanations that make sense with words as they are normally used and understood.
Fewer Licensees. There will be fewer brokers and salespeople next year. Why should this happen? Because more and more transactions are being handled by fewer and fewer top producers. Why has it not yet happened? Because in a hot economy it"s possible to hide a lot of inefficiency. If the real estate market contracts in 2000, look for a lot of empty desk space.
Web Site Roulette. We can expect several of today"s most prominent sites to combine, change their business strategy, or close. Why? In some cases initial IPO money will run out, in others projections will not be met. Signs to check: Less advertising, fewer news releases, and key employee desertions.
Recognition for NAR. In an organization with more than 700,000 members, criticism is to be expected and in some cases deserved. But the reality is that NAR"s online efforts have enormously benefited its membership, something that will become increasingly apparent in 2000. In particular, the tough operating agreement it has controlling the online use of its trademark is a model for other industries and groups.
New Technology. What will be the big techno-hit of 2000? Voice online is the certain winner. You won"t quite be able to throw away your keyboard, but it will surely get a lot less use in the coming year.
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